No. 1024 - The different effects of oil and gas supply shocks on euro-area inflation

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Francesco Corsello and Andrea Foschi
June 2026
Vai alla versione italiana Site Search

The 2026 war in the Middle East has significantly impacted energy commodity prices. This work analyses the effects and implications of oil and gas supply shocks for euro-area inflation. The analysis uses granular data on consumer prices for the euro area from 1996 to 2025.

Oil supply shocks have immediate but short-lived effects on energy inflation. Gas supply shocks, on the other hand, have more gradual but more persistent direct effects; they also have stronger and more pervasive effects on the non-energy components of consumer prices. The indirect effects of energy price variations are larger when inflation is higher, especially in the case of gas supply shocks.

Full text

  1. 12 June 2026
    No. 1024 - The different effects of oil and gas supply shocks on euro-area inflation
    PDF 6 MB

Sezione di approfondimento