No. 1012 - Driven to leave: analysing the factors behind emigration in Africa

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Enrica Di Stefano and Elena Rossi Espagnet
June 2026
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Emigration may be driven by factors related to the countries of origin, countries of destination, or global factors. This paper quantifies the relative importance of domestic factors in determining outbound migration flows from Africa and analyses their correlation with certain characteristics of the countries of origin, such as the presence of established migration networks, GDP per capita, the unemployment rate, demographic trends, and exposure to natural disasters.

Globally, an increase in the labour force, population, or unemployment, coupled with a decline in per capita GDP in the countries of origin, drives emigration, particularly from low- and middle-income economies. In Africa, there is also a positive correlation between emigration and the occurrence of natural disasters, suggesting that the region's high vulnerability to the effects of climate change could drive migration flows in the coming decades.

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  1. 05 June 2026
    No. 1012 - Driven to leave: analysing the factors behind emigration in Africa
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