No. 1006 - Artificial intelligence and the US economy: an accounting perspective on investment and production
The paper describes the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and the diffusion of the related services. It then analyses how, over the short run, these developments affect the main macroeconomic aggregates in the United States, where the largest AI firms operate, and presents a detailed analysis of the AI value chain.
In the first nine months of 2025, AI investments, especially those for building new data centres, significantly boosted aggregate demand in the United States. However, the contribution to GDP was more modest, due to the high import content of new investments. The AI production chain is global in scale, with chip manufacturing and server assembly spread across various countries. The impact on GDP of the services provided by data centres could quickly reach a level like that currently generated by the investments.
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