No. 975 - Is there a tech bubble in the US stock market? Evidence from an agnostic valuation procedure
Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Marco Albori, Valerio Nispi Landi and Marco Taboga
October 2025
The paper examines the stock market valuations of the ten largest US technology companies, analysing how they are affected by current and expected profitability. To this end, a dividend-discount model is applied to estimate the earnings growth rates implied by share prices; the plausibility of such rates is then assessed through an analysis of the underlying factors.
The current equity valuations for the companies under review are consistent with earnings growth rates in line with those recorded in recent years or, in some cases, even significantly lower. While the achievement of the growth rates implied by the model is by no means assured, it does not appear unlikely in light of the factors that have supported the most recent performance.
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