The paper presents an overview of the pathways of the main Italian climate and macroeconomic variables according to the most recently updated Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios. While acknowledging the analytical contribution provided by the scenarios, our work suggests that there is some reason for caution concerning the underlying assumptions; (final) users need to consider them, especially within the scope of stress testing or the definition of carbon emission targets.
Orderly transition scenarios with a high level of coordination across countries might have less severe economic impacts compared with a disorderly transition or the continuation of current policies. In all scenarios, considerable recourse to the use of renewable energy use is projected, both in Italy and in the EU. However, these scenarios do not allow us to properly consider the heterogeneous effects of different fiscal and energy measures across countries; furthermore, the physical risk impacts might be underestimated.
