We estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on hidden drop-outs, a new indicator of school failure that measures the likelihood that students do not acquire adequate skills by the end of high school, despite having formally completed school and having obtained a diploma.
Looking at students with the same characteristics (such as existing skills), hidden drop-outs increased by 8.6 percentage points in the school year 2020-21 compared with 2018-19, roughly 50 per cent higher than the indicator for the same year. This translates into a loss of about one year of learning progress. The pandemic has severely affected students with pre-existing learning difficulties and those coming from poorer socio-economic backgrounds.
Forthcoming in: Journal of Human Capital.
