No. 1542 - The macroeconomic effects of AI technology shocks
The paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation in the United States. To this end, it constructs a new indicator based on the AI content of patents filed since 1980 and uses unexpected variations in this measure to estimate the impact of AI on productivity, economic activity, employment and prices.
AI-related technological shocks have effects similar to those of positive supply shocks: they increase productivity, GDP, employment and wages, while reducing consumer prices. The economic effects are larger than those associated with other digital and automation innovations. However, the economic benefits are not evenly distributed: the diffusion of AI reduces the labour income share and increases wealth concentration. Focusing on the subset of patents relating to generative artificial intelligence, the analysis shows that technological progress in this area has produced qualitatively similar macroeconomic effects over the period studied.
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30 July 2026
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