No. 1515 - Assessing the effectiveness of workers' selection exams: the case of Banca d'Italia
This paper proposes a model for analysing the results of hiring exams based on multiple-choice questions, capable of estimating both participants' ability (the ability to provide correct answers) and their propensity to answer. The model is applied to Banca d'Italia hiring exams to assess whether the tests are effective in selecting the most able candidates. It is also used for counterfactual simulations aimed at analysing the effects of possible changes to the design of the exam.
A candidate's ability is a crucial factor in determining success in Banca d'Italia competitive exams. Simulations indicate that increasing the difficulty of questions or eliminating penalties associated with incorrect answers would improve the average ability of selected candidates. Gender differences in competitive exam outcomes do not appear to be attributable to implicit discrimination due to the structure of the tests, while a gender quota in the pre-selection test would lead to a reduction in the number of women hired.
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06 February 2026
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