No. 1495 - Local labour market conditions and electoral behaviour: an instrumental variable approach from Italy
Temi di discussione (Working papers)
by Daniel Mele and Alessandro Pietropaoli
October 2025
The study examines the relationship between employment dynamics and electoral behaviour. Relying on Italian data at the local labour market level for the last four national elections, the analysis shows how changes in the employment rate between electoral rounds affect participation and voter choices.
Electoral reactions are observed only where employment worsens, presumably in line with a protest vote. After a decline in the local employment rate, voter turnout increases and support for the parties that won the previous elections decreases. These effects are less pronounced when the regional political majority is aligned with the national one.
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