The paper evaluates the impact of mobility restriction measures in March and April 2020 on the Italian grocery chain stores' revenues. The identification strategy exploits the spatial-temporal differences in the enforcement of the restrictions, first imposed in the province of Lodi, then in the whole Lombardy, and finally in the rest of the country. The data allow to measure sales trends of Fast-Moving Consumer Goods by distinguishing quantities and prices in different types of outlets (supermarkets, hypermarkets, discounts, and superettes).
In the two months March-April 2020, grocery chain stores grew throughout the country, reflecting increases in both quantities and prices. The analysis shows that mobility restrictions contributed significantly to this, albeit with differences between store types. It is estimated that sales increased more in superettes than in large, more peripheral outlets. Limited to the latter, the mobility restriction measures alone, net of the risk of contagion, would have produced lower revenues of around 10%.
Published in: Italian Economic Journal / Rivista italiana degli economisti, v. 8, 2, pp. 471-498
