No. 211 - Business Cycles in Italy: A Retrospective Investigation

In this paper a statistical analysis of post-war economic fluctuations in Italy is conducted. It is argued that business cycles in this country qualitatively conform to the general character of the phenomenon, a result which confirms existing evidence. A temporal stability analysis of stylized facts shows that some statistically significant changes in the empirical regularities occurred after 1973, which however did not alter the main qualitative features of the business cycle. The evidence thus supports interpretative models which incorporate a stable propagation mechanism. The historical pattern of volatility of economic fluctuations in aggregate output is also examined. Contrary to previous evidence, it is found a higher stability in the post-war era respect to both the pre-war and the inter-war periods.