This paper analyses the potential consequences of the Covid-19 crisis on the demographic structure of the Italian population, and consequently on GDP, between 2020 and 2065.
After discussing the potential effects of the pandemic from a historical perspective, the analysis focuses on uncertainty and worsening economic conditions, captured by the unemployment rate, and on how these may influence fertility decisions and migration flows. We build several scenarios regarding developments in demographic and economic variables following the Covid-19 pandemic, and we compare them with simulations based on pre-crisis Istat demographic projections.
Worsening economic conditions caused by the pandemic, if not countered with adequate policies for economic recovery, may accelerate the demographic decline of the population, causing a further reduction in the working-age population (aged 15-64) compared with the pre-pandemic Istat projections. Such further reduction is estimated at between 1.6 million and 3.4 million in 2065. The consequent potential loss of output, which does not include the possible effects of growth enhancing policies (such as the National Recovery and Resilience Plan), is estimated at between 4 and 16 percentage points in 2065.
Published in 2023 in: Social Indicators Research, v. 169, pp. 23-54.
