ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 6 - 2026

ECB Economic Bulletin
September 2026
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At its meeting on 10 September 2026, the Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period. The decision to raise interest rates underscores the Governing Council's commitment to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.

The baseline of the September 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area sees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. Compared with the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, the baseline projection for inflation in 2026 is unchanged, while it has been revised up for 2027 and 2028. The baseline projection for economic growth is 0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028. This is an upward revision for both 2026 and 2027, mainly reflecting the greater than expected resilience of the euro area economy.

The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth. In relation to the energy shock, the updated scenarios put together by staff illustrate the broad range of outcomes for how growth and inflation would evolve under different assumptions about its intensity and duration, as well as its indirect and second-round effects. These scenarios were published as part of the September 2026 projections on the ECB's website.

With its decision on 10 September, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council's interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

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  1. 24 September 2026
    ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 6 - 2026
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