ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 5 - 2026

ECB Economic Bulletin
August 2026
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At its meeting on 23 July 2026, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, stands close to the baseline of the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East. Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the
energy shock has yet to play out. The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects. It is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.

With its decision on 23 July, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

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  1. 06 August 2026
    ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 5 - 2026
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