No. 1015 - Economic exposure to wildfires: a firm-level analysis based on innovative hazard mapping in Italy
The study assesses the exposure of Italian firms to wildfires, based on the number of at-risk employees and operating units, using the innovative hazard maps developed by Fondazione CIMA. It also analyses the impact of fires that occurred in the two years 2021-2022 on the survival probability of operating units. Finally, it employs multiple climate scenarios to evaluate how firms' exposure to wildfires may evolve over the coming decades.
About 1.9 per cent of Italian firms' operating units are located in areas subject to significant wildfire risk; this share rises to 5.4 per cent in the agricultural sector. Units affected by wildfires in 2021-2022 show a survival probability comparable to that of the unaffected units. A global temperature increase of 3°C - projected under several climate scenarios to occur by the end of the century - would result in a limited rise in the overall share of at-risk establishments, but this would be more pronounced in Puglia, Campania, and Lazio.
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