No. 970 - Timely quarterly indicators of household consumption and disposable income for the Italian regions

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Valter Di Giacinto, Vincenzo Mariani, Daniele Ruggeri, Giuseppe Saporito, Andrea Sechi, Giovanni Soggia, Andrea Venturini and Antonio Veronico
October 2025
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At the regional level, official statistics on household income and consumption are only available on an annual basis and, in their provisional version, with a one-year lag relative to the reference period. This study presents an econometric methodology that is based on national values of household income and consumption, along with other regional data, and enables us to estimate these two variables on a quarterly basis and with a lag of about three months. The methodology is the one currently in use in Banca d'Italia's reports on the economies of Italian regions.

This statistical approach provides reliable and timely indicators of regional income and consumption dynamics, offering crucial information for short-term economic analysis. The accuracy of the estimates is relatively higher for larger and more economically significant regions, whose aggregates are characterized by lower volatility.

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