We estimate the effect of weather shocks on agricultural yields in Italy and quantify the projected changes in yields at the national and province level by 2030 in a scenario of moderate global warming. The analysis focuses on three of the main agricultural crops grown in Italy (corn, durum wheat and wine grape), which are heterogeneous in terms of production region, growing season, and weather requirements.
The estimated relationship between yield and temperature is non-linear: positive below a given threshold (approximately 28° for cereals and 32° for wine grape) and negative above. Our estimates, based on the climate projections used in this study, indicate that the average effect across Italy in 2030 will be non-negative for the three crops considered. However, it is plausible that further increases in temperature over the following decades (or sooner, if climate projections are too optimistic) will determine an overall negative effect.
