ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 6 - 2025
At its meeting on 11 September 2025, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council's assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged.
The September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June. They see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. For inflation excluding energy and food, they expect an average of 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from the 0.9% expected in June. The growth projection for 2026 is now slightly lower, at 1.0%, while the projection for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.
The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council's interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
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25 September 2025ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 6 - 2025PDF 4 MB
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