ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 5 - 2022

At its meeting on 21 July 2022, in line with its strong commitment to its price stability mandate, the Governing Council took further key steps to make sure inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term. The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and approved the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI).

The Governing Council judged that it was appropriate to take a larger first step on its policy rate normalisation path than signalled at its previous meeting. This decision was based on the Governing Council's updated assessment of inflation risks and the reinforced support provided by the TPI for the effective transmission of monetary policy. It will support the return of inflation to the Governing Council's medium-term target by strengthening the anchoring of inflation expectations and by ensuring that demand conditions adjust to deliver its inflation target in the medium term.

At the Governing Council's upcoming meetings, further normalisation of interest rates will be appropriate. The frontloading of the exit from negative interest rates to the July meeting allows the Governing Council to make a transition to a meeting-bymeeting approach to interest rate decisions. The Governing Council's future policy rate path will continue to be data-dependent and will help to deliver on its 2% inflation target over the medium term. In the context of its policy normalisation, the Governing Council will evaluate options for remunerating excess liquidity holdings.

The Governing Council assessed that the establishment of the TPI was necessary to support the effective transmission of monetary policy. In particular, as the Governing Council continues normalising monetary policy, the TPI will ensure that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries. The singleness of the Governing Council's monetary policy is a precondition for the ECB to be able to deliver on its price stability mandate.

The TPI will be an addition to the Governing Council's toolkit and can be activated to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across the euro area. The scale of TPI purchases would depend on the severity of the risks facing policy transmission. Purchases are not restricted ex ante. By safeguarding the transmission mechanism, the TPI will allow the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

In any event, the flexibility in reinvestments of redemptions coming due in the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolio remains the first line of defence to counter risks to the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

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