Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2026 Q3

8 October 2026

According to the survey conducted between 25 August and 18 September 2026 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, negative opinions on the general state of the economy eased in the third quarter of this year, although they remained worse than those recorded before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Total demand for products or services remained positive overall, with weaker assessments in industry excluding construction and considerable resilience in services and construction. Sales growth was supported by the foreign component, while domestic sales weakened. The conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to have a limited impact on demand for products and services, while affecting production input costs more significantly.

The outlook for firms' operating conditions in the fourth quarter remains unfavourable. The outlook for total demand and its foreign component is instead still positive and employment is expected to grow, albeit at a marginally slower pace year on year.

Investment plans for 2026 continue to be expansionary, although investment conditions are still assessed as unfavourable, especially by small firms. Credit access conditions remained stable and the expected liquidity position is adequate overall.

Selling prices continued to rise in all sectors, with quarter-on-quarter growth being broadly stable in industry excluding construction and in services, and more subdued in construction. Firms expect further increases over the next 12 months, mainly owing to commodity prices: most firms affected by conflict-related cost increases report having passed them through, in part or in full, to their own prices. Inflation expectations remain broadly stable, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline over shorter horizons.

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