Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2026 Q2

14 July 2026

According to the survey conducted between 19 May and 16 June 2026 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, opinions regarding the general state of the economy deteriorated further in the second quarter compared with the previous survey, with a widespread worsening across all sectors. Firms indicated that the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had an impact on their activity because of higher prices for energy and other production factors.

The outlook for firms' own operating conditions for the next quarter is less unfavourable overall, reflecting the improvement in assessments of developments in total demand, especially in services. Short-term demand expectations are positive and remain more cautious for the foreign component.

Despite a worsening in investment conditions, the balance between firms expecting to increase investment and those expecting to reduce it in 2026 remained positive, and only slightly lower than in the previous survey.

Consumer price inflation expectations range between 2.5 and 2.8 per cent depending on the time horizon. Firms' selling prices have accelerated and are expected to continue to rise over the next 12 months, partly driven by the higher production input costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Most of the firms interviewed report that they have transferred or intend to transfer them to their selling prices, albeit to a limited extent.

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