Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2026 Q1

14 April 2026

The survey for the first quarter of 2026 was conducted between 20 February and 18 March 2026, at the time of the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which resulted in a marked deterioration in firms' assessments of macroeconomic developments (Table c20 in the Statistical Appendix).

Compared with the previous survey, firms' assessments of the general state of the economy worsened in all sectors, as did the outlook for their own operating conditions. The latter have been particularly affected by the rise in the price of energy commodities and by the economic and political uncertainty linked to the ongoing conflict.

Total demand has weakened across all sectors; industry excluding construction recorded a worsening in the foreign component as well. Over the next three months, firms' expectations for total sales remain positive, despite a decline in the outlook for exports. Investment conditions also point to a marked worsening, exacerbated by the outbreak of the war. However, the investment plans for 2026 are broadly unchanged compared with the previous survey, except for a moderate decline in industry excluding construction.

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by Italian firms was still moderate at the beginning of 2026, with more widespread use in large firms and in services. The main barriers to the adoption or more extensive use of this technology would likely stem from a lack of adequate skills and from the perception that AI is not very applicable to a firm's specific activity.

Over the last 12 months, firms' selling prices have risen at essentially the same pace as reported in the previous survey. They are expected to increase moderately over the next 12 months, despite expectations of higher production costs, pointing to a reduction in margins. Consumer price inflation expectations continue to stand at below 2 per cent across all time horizons.

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