Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2025 Q2

8 July 2025

According to the survey conducted between 19 May and 12 June 2025 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, opinions regarding the general state of the economy remained unfavourable overall in the second quarter of this year but the negative balance between assessments of an improvement and those of a deterioration narrowed significantly. Compared with the previous quarter, both the assessments of current sales, especially on the domestic market, and the outlook for short-term business conditions improved. However, they are being affected by the negative effects of the tariffs imposed by the United States. Firms expect employment growth across all sectors in the third quarter.

Assessments of investment conditions were also less unfavourable. Firms reported that they expected a slightly higher growth in investment in 2025 than was recorded in the spring. Assessments of access to credit improved marginally in the second quarter.

Compared with the previous survey, firms' selling prices over the last 12 months rose at a moderate and almost unchanged pace, in both industry and services; prices are expected to slow down across all sectors over the next 12 months. Firms' expectations for consumer price inflation went up slightly across all forecasting horizons, standing at 2.0 per cent for the 6-, 12- and 24-month horizons.

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