Economic Bulletin No. 1, January 2015

Activity picks up pace in the US but the global outlook is still clouded

Economic activity has accelerated in the United States. The fall in oil prices may help to sustain growth, but the prospects for the world economy remain uncertain owing to persistent weakness in the euro area and Japan and to the slowdown in China. The Governing Council of the ECB stands ready to alter the size, pace and composition of its measures to counter the growing risks to price stability.

The outlook for the next two years depends on the strength of the investment recovery …

In Italy, consumption has been growing modestly since the summer of 2013, but its contribution to the growth of the economy has been offset by the decline in investment. We project modest growth of the Italian economy this year and stronger growth in 2016, but the projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. The crucial factor will be the strength of the upturn in investment.

… and on economic policies

Economic activity will be buoyed by falling oil prices, the depreciation of the euro and the reduction of the tax wedge. Risks could derive from a rekindling of international financial market tensions and the cyclical slowdown in the emerging economies. Aggressive monetary support measures can help to combat the downward pressure on prices and the weakness of economic activity in the euro area and Italy.