No. 1080 - Electric vehicle adoption and shrinking China's oil footprint

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Lorenzo Bencivelli, Alessandro D'Orazio, Simone Emiliozzi and Andrea Gazzani
November 2026
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This paper examines how electric vehicle (EV) adoption in China is reshaping gasoline consumption and the potential implications for global oil markets. Using a model that projects the evolution of China's passenger-car fleet under alternative scenarios, we estimate how much gasoline China could save in the coming years, through 2040.

In China, EVs accounted for over half of new car sales in 2025 but less than one sixth of the vehicle fleet. Estimates suggest that without EVs, gasoline consumption would have been 460,000 barrels per day (14 per cent) higher. Faster EV adoption would lead to a sustained decline in overall gasoline demand as early as 2027. By 2040, savings would reach around 1.45 million barrels per day, nearly 40 per cent of 2025 gasoline consumption.

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  1. 12 November 2026
    No. 1080 - Electric vehicle adoption and shrinking China's oil footprint
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