No. 1072 - Demand and supply shocks, persistence, and investment dynamics: evidence from the Italian economy

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)

(only in Italian)

by Lorenzo Mori and Tiziano Ropele
October 2026
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This paper uses an econometric model to quantify the contribution of different demand and supply shocks to economic activity and capital accumulation in Italy over the period 1996–2025, with the aim of analysing the drivers of the main phases of the business cycle.

Adverse permanent supply shocks contributed more heavily to the decline in investment and economic activity than demand shocks, particularly during the double-dip recession of 2008-14. In the post-pandemic period, the recovery in investment was mainly supported by demand stimuli associated with fiscal policies adopted at the national and European levels; adverse supply shocks again had a significant impact on capital accumulation during the energy crisis, starting in 2022.

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  1. 13 October 2026
    No. 1072 - Demand and supply shocks, persistence, and investment dynamics: evidence from the Italian economy
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    (only in Italian)

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