No. 1063 - The reactions of financial markets to the releases of DeepSeek R1 and Kimi K3: a critical analysis

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Marco Taboga
October 2026
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The paper compares the reactions of international equity markets to the releases of two Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) models: DeepSeek R1 and Kimi K3. It discusses why the two episodes saw similar declines in the main indices, but very different distributions of losses across technology companies. The results of the analysis are used to draw conclusions about the exposure of the AI supply chain to Chinese competition.

The launch of DeepSeek R1 led to a downward revision of expectations regarding AI computing costs and demand for computing capacity; stock market declines mainly affected US processor manufacturers. In the case of Kimi K3, the largest losses were recorded by other Chinese companies involved in developing AI models, which lack the competitive advantages typical of US companies, relating to infrastructure, distribution channels, proprietary data and established customer relationships.