No. 1028 - Reddit's 'pulse' on US inflation: forecasting with large language models

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional papers)
by Andrea Del Monaco, Luigi Longo, Juri Marcucci and Irene Tafani
June 2026
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The paper uses artificial intelligence models (large language models, LLMs), adapted to the economic language used on social media, to analyse discussions posted by users on the Reddit platform and to construct indicators based on this information to forecast inflation in the United States in real time.

The proposed indicators improve inflation forecasts relative to traditional models, especially over shorter horizons, and provide results that are comparable and complementary to those of some of the real-time forecasting tools used by central banks. In addition, adapting small language models (SLMs) to the economic context can significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining a similar forecasting performance.

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  1. 17 June 2026
    No. 1028 - Reddit's 'pulse' on US inflation: forecasting with large language models
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