No. 994 - The effects of US tariffs on Italian firms: an ex-ante micro-level perspective
The paper provides an ex-ante, micro-level assessment of the effects of U.S. tariffs on Italian firms, using customs data, electronic invoicing data, and balance-sheet information. Three channels are considered: the impact on firms that export directly to the United States, the indirect impact on their Italian suppliers, and the potential diversion of Chinese products excluded from the U.S. market toward other international markets.
The tariffs would moderately reduce profit margins for both Italian firms that export directly to the United States and their Italian suppliers, except for a very small number of firms that are more exposed. The increase in the supply of Chinese products to international markets other than the United States entails non-negligible risks, especially for sectors that are not directly exposed to the US market.
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22 December 2025
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