No. 787 - Dynamics of temperatures and economic activity in Italy: a long-term analysis

Vai alla versione italiana Site Search

by Michele Brunetti, Paolo Croce, Matteo Gomellini and Paolo PiselliJuly 2023

In this paper, we reconstruct the annual historical series of temperatures in Italy at provincial level from 1871 to 2001 and study their economic impact. Furthermore, we assess the potential repercussions of future global warming on the Italian economy, based on the forecasts of the leading international research centres on climate change.

Average temperatures in Italy have risen by about 2° C since the end of the 19th century. In a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions led to a further 1.5° C increase over the next eighty years, per capita GDP could be between 2.8 and 9.5 per cent lower in 2100 than it would be if the economy were to grow at the average pace recorded over the last century (+2 per cent per annum).

Full text