This paper estimates the direct and indirect effects of the 2016 earthquake in central Italy on the population dynamics of the municipalities involved. The analysis is based on the comparison of resident population dynamics in the municipalities in the earthquake zone with those of a group of municipalities that are similar in terms of urbanization and geo-morphological features, but which were not directly affected.
The findings show that the earthquake has significantly exacerbated the decrease in population in the municipalities affected: the estimated average effect corresponds to almost two fifths of the actually observed demographic reduction (i.e. a reduction of about 14,000 people in six years out of a total contraction of almost 37,000). The impact, which is statistically significant for the whole area, is found to be more severe for the territories that suffered the most damage.
