No. 704 - Job flows and reallocation during the recovery

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by Gaetano Basso, Domenico Depalo and Salvatore LattanzioJuly 2022

The crisis caused by COVID-19 profoundly affected the dynamics of activations and terminations of labour contracts, with heterogeneous effects on workers, penalizing especially those with less stable contracts. This study uses a large random sample of Italian employees extracted from the Ministry of Labour's mandatory reporting administrative data (comunicazioni obbligatorie) to analyse employment dynamics from the onset of the pandemic up to December 2021.

For workers with stable contracts in the first four months of 2020, the probability of non-employment after almost two years decreased by about 2 percentage points compared with previous years. The probability of finding a new job was instead significantly lower for  employees who lost their jobs right before the onset of the pandemic and for those who were searching for a job for the first time in 2020-21.

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