This study assesses the implications of a change in US trade tariffs for the EU, with a particular focus on Italy. The work quantifies, at the aggregate and sectoral level, the actual average bilateral tariffs on trade in final and intermediate goods. Moreover, by taking into account international production chains, the analysis estimates the direct and indirect exposure of the EU and its main countries' GDP to various scenarios of potential US tariff hikes.
An increase in US tariffs would potentially affect around 2.8 per cent of EU GDP. The share of Italy's GDP that could potentially be harmed is around 2.3 per cent, below Germany's (3.7 per cent). US tariffs limited to automotive imports would affect 0.4 per cent of EU GDP. Germany would be hit hardest (0.9 per cent of its GDP) whereas Italy's total exposure would be just below the EU average (0.3 per cent).
