No. 381 - Brexit: estimating tariff costs for EU countries in a new trade regime with the UK

This study estimates the average tariffs that the producers of each of the 27 EU countries could face when exporting to the UK in the event that a new Free Trade Agreement is not reached as part of the Brexit negotiation and that trade between the EU and the UK is conducted under WTO most-favoured-nation terms. The analysis is based on information from the WTO-IDB database and on bilateral trade flows at the product level published by UN Comtrade.

The results show that average tariff costs would be different across EU countries, depending on the initial level of commercial relationships with the UK and on the sectoral composition of trade flows. Different tariff costs may potentially create a strong heterogeneity in the EU economies with regard to their stakes in the negotiations with the UK, and have an impact on the establishment of the EU position, to which each Member State contributes equally.