Systemic risk, which macroprudential policies aim to minimize, is very difficult to identify ex ante. The search for indicators that may allow to activate macroprudential policies in time to prevent or contain crises has given disappointing results so far, with the important exception of the class of indicators based on credit growth.
A set of macroprudential tools is emerging through practice and legislation, but its outlines are not yet well defined. Also, the effects, effectiveness, and mutual interactions of the tools are not quite clear yet. Moreover, little is known about the interactions between macroprudential policy and other policies – e.g. monetary and microprudential.
A reliable theoretical-analytical system to understand its functioning, and to calibrate and measure the effectiveness of macroprudential policies, is not available yet. In Europe, additional challenges arise from the complex architecture of the system of financial supervision and the changes introduced recently - the establishment of National Macroprudential Authorities and the start of the Single Supervisory Mechanism.
On the economic front, while the macroeconomic developments in the Euro Area would suggest that expansionary macroprudential policies should be implemented, the measures adopted so far in many countries were almost exclusively of a restrictive nature. Overall, the analysis highlights several areas of uncertainty but also the strong potential of the new macroprudential policies, which can contribute, together with monetary policy, to a more stable macrofinancial system.
