The paper analyzes developments in bank lending in Italy during the financial crisis, assessing the relative contribution of demand and supply factors to lending deceleration. We find that the slowdown in lending was mainly due to a reduction in demand. For households, this can be attributed to the weakness of the real estate market and to the fall in consumption; for firms, a diminution in financing needs, due in turn to the sharp contraction of investment.
Credit market indicators and empirical studies suggest that lending growth may also have been curbed by tensions in credit supply. These tensions mainly reflected the increase in borrower risk, as well as the impact of the crisis - especially in its first phase - on banks' capital, liquidity, and ability to access external funding. Econometric analyses corroborate these indications,suggesting that the overall impact of banks' conditions on the lending slowdown was modest.
Over the next few months, supply tensions could persist, but the risk of a limitation of credit will be moderated by the economic recovery and the consequent reduction in borrower default risk. There will also be support from public interventions, which have provided financial support to firms, improving their creditworthiness, and strengthened banks' capital and liquidity position.
