ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 7 - 2026

ECB Economic Bulletin
November 2026
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At its meeting on 29 October 2026, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook. While the full effects of the energy shock are still unfolding, underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage. The increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth. Financing conditions have tightened since the Governing Council's meeting on 10 September 2026, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth. The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.

The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current elevated uncertainty. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council's interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

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  1. 12 November 2026
    ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 7 - 2026
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