Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2025 Q4

14 January 2026

The survey was conducted between 20 November and 16 December 2025 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees. Assessments of the general state of the economy have continued to improve gradually since the second quarter of 2025. Assessments of and expectations for demand, both domestic and foreign, were also more favourable than in the previous survey, with the exception of expectations for construction.

Expectations for 12-month growth in wages stand at around 2 per cent on average. Those for the next three months on firms' business conditions improved slightly, reflecting the less negative effects of the uncertainty attributable to economic and political factors and to trade policies. Employment is expected to continue to grow over the next three months.

Assessments of investment conditions were less unfavourable than in the previous quarter, with a slight improvement in industry excluding construction and in services, while they worsened in construction. Nominal investment expenditure for 2026 as a whole is likely to continue to grow compared with the previous year. A significant share of manufacturing firms reported using the Transition 4.0 and Transition 5.0 incentives.

Growth in own selling prices was slightly lower for the economy as a whole and the growth expected for the next 12 months remains moderate. Consumer price inflation expectations declined across all time horizons and range from 1.6 to 1.8 per cent.

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