Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2025 Q3

9 October 2025

According to the survey conducted between 26 August and 19 September 2025 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, assessments of the general state of the economy are unfavourable overall, albeit they have improved compared with the start of the year. Overall demand stagnated in the third quarter, partly reflecting the implementation of tariffs on exports to the United States and the appreciation of the euro. Firms' expectations for the following quarter continue to point to a recovery in sales, although they are less upbeat than in the previous survey; moreover, business conditions remain a source of concern. Employment expectations have softened accordingly, particularly in services and construction.

Firms expect investment to grow in 2025, helped by stable credit standards and sufficient liquidity levels.

Over the last 12 months, firms' selling prices rose at essentially the same pace as reported in the previous survey. Firms in industry excluding construction and in services still expect their prices to go up moderately over the next 12 months, while construction firms anticipate stronger growth. Consumer price inflation expectations have eased slightly, especially over short-term horizons.

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