No. 1502 - Mafia infiltrations in times of crisis: evidence from the Covid-19 shock

Temi di discussione (Working papers)
by Marco Castelluccio and Lucia Rizzica
October 2025
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We study the impact of a deterioration in firms' financial conditions on the risk of mafia infiltration. To this end, we leverage the sharp decline in revenues caused by the lockdowns imposed in Italy during the spring of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Our estimates show that a sharp drop in firms' revenues leads to a non-negligible increase in the probability of mafia infiltration, although the overall likelihood remains limited. During the Covid-19 pandemic, this effect was partially mitigated by public support measures.

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  1. 13 October 2025
    No. 1502 - Mafia infiltrations in times of crisis: evidence from the Covid-19 shock
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