No. 1427 - Trade in the time of COVID-19: an empirical analysis based on Italian data

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by Gianmarco CariolaNovember 2023

This paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Italian firms' international trade. Using microdata from the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency, it exploits firms' different degree of exposure to the pandemic shock in order to assess its effect on the growth rate of imports and exports.

The containment measures adopted in the countries of origin and destination of the traded goods had considerable repercussions on Italian firms' international trade during the first wave of the pandemic (until fall 2020); the impact was attenuated during the subsequent phases. The measures adopted at the local level by the Italian government as of October 2020 (the 'color system') do not appear to have had any significant effects on foreign trade.

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