No. 807 - Housing, consumption and monetary policy: how different are the U.S. and the euro area?

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by Alberto Musso, Stefano Neri and Livio StraccaApril 2011

This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the macroeconomic role of the housing market in the U.S. and the euro area. First, it establishes some stylised facts concerning key variables in the housing market on the two sides of the Atlantic, such as real house prices, residential investment and mortgage debt. Next, it presents evidence from Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) by focusing on the effects of monetary policy, credit supply and housing demand shocks on the housing market and the broader economy. The analysis shows that in the housing market similarities outweigh differences. The empirical evidence suggests a stronger role for housing in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the U.S. The evidence is less clear-cut for housing demand shocks. Finally, credit supply shocks seem to matter more in the euro area.

Published in 2011 in: Journal of Banking and Finance, v.35, 11, pp. 3019-3041