No. 323 - Education, Infrastructure, Geography and Growth: An Empirical Analysis of the Development of Italian Provinces

This work provides an empirical analysis of the development of Italian provinces over the period 1952-1992, investigating the existence of convergence and/or divergence processes, identifying groups of provinces characterised by similar growth patterns and examining the role played by various factors, recently highlighted by the literature, in provincial development. The evidence obtained from a nonparametric analysis of the data shows the existence of convergence over the period 1952-1992. Transition matrices indicate, however, that such a process concerns only the first two decades: between 1952 and 1970 many backward provinces in the South grew more rapidly than the advanced provinces in the Centre and North; this tendency came to a halt after 1970. Over the last two decades, the southern provinces appear to be on a growth path which diverges from the rest of the country. The evaluation of the role played by different factors in the explanation of provincial growth points to the significance of education, infrastructure and "geo-economical" factors, such as distance from northern markets and specialisation of production.