The information that has become available since early September confirmed a continued moderate but steady recovery of the euro area economy and a gradual rise in inflation, in line with previous expectations.
The euro area economy has continued to show resilience to the adverse effects of global economic and political uncertainty, aided by the ECB’s comprehensive monetary policy measures, which ensure very favourable financing conditions for firms and households. Overall, however, the baseline scenario remains subject to downside risks.
Available global indicators point to a modest rebound in global activity and trade growth in the third quarter. At the same time, global headline inflation has remained at low levels as past energy price declines have weighed on price increases.
Risks to the outlook for global activity remain on the downside and relate in particular to political uncertainty and financial imbalances.
