The interviews for the Italian Housing Market Survey were carried out between 7 and 28 January 2014. A total of 1,406 estate agents took part. Information was provided on house sales, rentals and prices in the reference quarter (October-December 2013) and on the outlook for the future.
Main findings
House prices
In December the share of estate agents reporting a decline in selling prices rose to 70.5 per cent from 68.2 per cent in the October survey. This mainly reflects assessments made in urban and metropolitan areas, particularly in the regions of the Centre.
Sales
The share of estate agents selling at least one property in the reference quarter was 65.8 per cent, up from the previous quarter (although this is subject to strong seasonal factors in the summer months) and from the corresponding period in 2012. In addition, in more than two thirds of cases these were sales of existing homes.
Sales involved, for the most part, properties of up to 140 m2 (about 95 per cent), ready to move in, or needing only partial refurbishment (64.8 per cent), and with a low energy class (about 62 per cent).
Mandates to sell
The balance between replies indicating an increase and those reporting a decrease in current mandates to sell remained basically stable at around 30 percentage points while the balance in reference to new mandates rose to 20.6 percentage points from 19.4 points in the previous survey. The latter balance was mainly influenced by the positive assessments found in the urban and metropolitan areas, in particular in the North-East and the Centre.
Among the main reasons for mandates to sell being cancelled, there was still a high percentage of agencies reporting an absence of offers to buy due to potential buyers considering that the prices were too high (63.2 per cent), as well as sellers considering that the offers were too low (50.5 per cent). The percentage remained low for agents attributing the expiry of the mandate to expectations of higher prices, in line with the still uncertain scenario for house prices. The percentage of agencies reporting difficulties in obtaining a mortgage as the main cause of mandates ending remained more or less stable.
Negotiations and selling times
The average margin for reductions on the selling price in relation to the seller’s initial asking price was 16 per cent, which was not very different of the average level of the last four quarters. The time between the start of the mandate to sell and the sale of the property remained at around 9 months.
Financing house purchases
Towards the end of 2013, the share of house purchases financed by a mortgage loan rose further to 60.9 per cent from 57.2 per cent in the October survey. At the same time there was an increase in the loan-to-value ratio for properties to 59.8 per cent from 57.9 per cent.
Rentals
Around 81 per cent of agencies reported renting out at least one property in the fourth quarter of 2013, with a decline in rents compared with the third quarter, according to 61.1 per cent of agents. This situation was common to all parts of the country.
Outlook for the agents' own markets
Agents' assessments of the short-term trends for their own reference markets were better than in the last survey: the negative balance between positive and negative assessments lessened to -19.2 percentage points from -23.5 points. This is in line with the greater optimism expressed by 30.2 per cent of agencies, which expected an increase in the flow of new mandates in the current quarter.
Expectations for house prices remained pessimistic on the whole: the percentage of agents predicting a fall in prices in the first three months of 2014 compared with the previous quarter was stable at around 64 per cent; the share of agents expecting prices to rise was still minimal (up to 0.8 per cent from 0.5 per cent).
About 60 per cent of agents expected rents to hold stable in the current quarter (a result similar to that of the previous survey); the balance between agents expecting an increase and those expecting a reduction was -38.6 percentage points compared with -36.9 points in the last survey.
Outlook for the national housing market
The balance between positive and negative expectations remained stable at -36.5 percentage points. The variability of the respondents’ replies indicates that a high level of uncertainty persists. Compared with the previous quarter, the worsening of expectations was more marked in the North-West.
Expectations for the medium term (two years) were more optimistic: the balance between expectations of an improvement and those of a deterioration was positive for the second survey in a row, working out at 9.6 percentage points.
