According to the survey conducted between 23 November and 15 December 2021 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, opinions regarding the general economic situation in the fourth quarter of 2021 and their own operating conditions in the first quarter of the new year are less favourable compared with the previous survey. Demand dynamics are expected to remain robust, but delays in supply chains and the resurgence of the pandemic will likely entail downside risks to the activity or more than one in two firms.
The assessments of investment conditions have become more moderate: the balance between assessments of an improvement and of a worsening remained positive, though it narrowed to less than one third of the levels recorded in the survey conducted between August and September. Investment is expected to expand further in 2022, though at a slower pace than in the previous year. Employment is set to continue to grow in the first quarter of 2022.
Firms revised significantly upwards their selling prices in the last quarter of 2021 and their expectations for consumer price inflation in Italy have risen well above the 2 per cent threshold across all time horizons (12-month expectations have reached 3.2 per cent). The recent increases in energy prices and supply chain difficulties will likely lead to a rise in firms' selling prices over the next twelve months.
