The global economy recovers, but the outlook depends on the pandemic
The world economy recovered over the summer, but continues to be largely dependent on the exceptional stimulus measures introduced in all the main economies. The outlook remains subject to uncertainty about the course of the pandemic. The euro area still needs ample monetary stimulus. The ECB Governing Council has confirmed that it stands ready to further adjust all of its instruments.
Growth resumes in Italy and foreign trade picks up
According to our estimates, thanks also to the measures to stimulate demand, the increase in GDP in the third quarter is likely to have been stronger than was forecast in July, driven above all by the marked recovery in industry, while the outlook for services remains more uncertain, and households' propensity for precautionary saving is high.
Social safety nets mitigate the impact on employment
The number of persons in employment made a partial recovery over the summer. Recourse to social safety nets continues to soften the effects of the crisis: in July and August, the number of hours of wage supplementation authorized, though halved compared with the peak of April and May, stayed at levels never seen before the health emergency.
Economic policies have enabled an improvement in the financial markets
Monetary policy interventions, the expansionary fiscal stance and the agreement reached by the European Council on Next Generation EU have permitted a significant improvement in financial market conditions. Demand for Italian securities from non-residents has picked up again since June. Firms'substantial liquidity needs have been amply met by the sustained increase in bank lending.
The Government sets the objectives for the public accounts for the next few years
The budgetary provisions, incorporating the use of Next Generation EU resources, include expansionary measures that provide a considerable macroeconomic boost to the economy, consistent with a set of interventions in which public investment plays a significant role. To maximize the benefits, it is crucial to speed up the execution and ensure the quality of such interventions.