The article entitled 'The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the italian economy: illustrative scenarios', written by researchers from the Bank of Italy, is now online.
Uncertainty on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is very high. This note explores illustrative scenarios for economic activity in Italy in the two years 2020-21 based on alternative assumptions. In a central scenario, in which the underlying assumptions are broadly in line with those considered by the main institutional forecasters, GDP could decline by 9 per cent this year and then expand by nearly 5 per cent in 2021. Significant downward risks remain, however. The timing and strength of the recovery depend on the unfolding of the pandemic, on the global economic outlook, on possible financial repercussions and, to a significant extent, on the effectiveness of economic policies.