Forecasting in the time of coronavirus

The article entitled 'Forecasting in the time of coronavirus', written by researchers from the Bank of Italy, is now online.

Owing to the virulence of its impact on society and on the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge for forecasters as well: the phrase 'this time is different', which was fashionable during the Global Financial Crisis, while appropriate, does not adequately describe the seriousness and exceptionality of the situation.

The difficulty in anticipating the evolution of the pandemic, the lack of reliable statistical data, and the emergence of new transmission channels through which the public health crisis affects the economy are only some of the factors making the job of forecasters today more complex than ever.