The global outlook remains subject to downside risks
At the start of the year new tensions emerged in China’s financial markets, accompanied by concerns about its economy. In the euro area growth continues, but remains fragile. The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme is proving to be effective in supporting activity, but new downside risks to inflation and growth have emerged.
Domestic demand in Italy is recovering little by little but inflation is still very low
In Italy the recovery continues gradually. The boost from exports is progressively being replaced by that of domestic demand, especially consumption. The outlook for investment, however, continues to be clouded by uncertainty about foreign demand. Inflation remains low following the fresh fall in energy prices and persistently ample spare production capacity.
The recovery has the potential to strengthen in the next two years but economic policy support will be decisive
Estimates contained in this Bulletin suggest that in 2015 output rose by 0.8 per cent, and could increase by around 1.5 per cent in 2016 and in 2017. These projections are in line with those of July, but the weaker stimulus from foreign trade is expected to be replaced by a greater contribution from domestic demand in Italy and from the euro area. Significant risks remain, most notably those associated with international developments.
